Cost-benefit models should have realistic assumptions about farmer behavior change and transition rates from low-value crops to high-value crops. The transition rates in the cost-benefit analysis for the project were optimistic. The evaluation reported that faster transition rates were associated with farmers’: (1) pre-rehabilitation crop choice and experience (specifically, the extent of high-value agriculture cultivation immediately before rehabilitation); (2) success in forging market linkages; and (3) the presence of a committed base of water users who are committed to irrigating high-value crops every year. These factors should be taken into account when projecting transition rates.
Lesson Learned